November 26th at UFC 167, Georges St. Pierre will lose for the first time since Big John McCarthy stopped Matt Serra from his barrage of left right combinations while St. Pierre lay defenseless on his back. As a fan of GSP and someone who admires his dedication to mixed martial arts, I will be saddened by his loss, and begrudgingly ready to accept a new champion.
So exactly how is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt, an experienced Muay Thai fighter and an excellent wrestler going to lose? Johnny Hendricks will be the next UFC Welterweight Champion as a result of a classic case of overtraining and over thinking on the part of GSP. It sounds incomprehensible that a professional mixed martial artist could train for a fight too much, especially somebody as strategic and tactical as GSP. This time however, it will be to his demise. GSP has not finished a fight in nearly five years. Each of his last six fights ended with a Unanimous Decision, bringing him within seconds of BJ Penn’s record of total fight minutes at five hours three minutes and twelve seconds. As master of his craft, St. Pierre has now been through 27 training camps. At 32 years old and approaching his second fight off major knee surgery St. Pierre relies on slowing his opponent by taking them down and grinding out a decision. His body has been through the rigors and it will be the reason he loses his title November 16th.
My prediction you ask? Hendricks is an excellent wrestler and fights at a fast pace. GSP will have a difficult time taking him down and get frustrated, creating the need to adjust his game plan which will play directly into the hand of Hendricks who has finished nearly half his fights by KO/TKO. St. Pierre will throw a high leg kick to set up a takedown. When he shoots for the takedown, Hendricks will throw the right hand that takes the title away from GSP and begins a new era in an extremely talented class of welterweight fighters. If all that anecdotal evidence isn’t reason enough to believe in my prediction, consider in his last six fights dating back to 2011, Hendricks has stopped every other fight with punches. He won his last fight via Unanimous decision so the KO is due. Is this merely a coincidence? What’s you call? Will father time cast his shadow or will the ultimate strategist grind out another victory?